Analytici společnosti Rekt Capital, přední společnosti zabývající se analýzou a vzděláváním v oblasti kryptoměn, naznačují, že bitcoin a širší trh s kryptoměnami by mohly být na pokraji výrazného propadu cen.
V příspěvku z 24. září Rekt Capital poznamenal, že během předchozích tržních cyklů se bitcoin vymanil ze svého reakumulačního rozsahu mezi 154 a 161 dny po události na polovinu. Analytik poznamenal, že letošní půlení BTC se konalo 20. dubna, což bylo před 157 dny, což naznačuje, že trh je v současné době v časovém rámci prolomení.
Analytik Rekt Capital říká, že prolomení ceny bitcoinu by mohlo nastat začátkem roku 2025
Během cyklu půlení v roce 2016 se bitcoin vymanil z akumulační fáze vázané na rozsah 154 dní poté, co byla nabídka nových BTC snížena o 50 %, zatímco v roce 2020 kryptoměna vypukla 161 dní po události půlení.
Analytik také poukázal na to, že bitcoin nemusí následovat tento trend způsobem kopírování a vkládání, ale pokud by se tak stalo v tomto cyklu, pak by se BTC měl v příštím vymanit z rozsahu opětovné akumulace. pár dní. Nejspíše tento týden.
Porovnali také pravidelné výnosy a zdůraznili, že září je pro bitcoiny historicky medvědím měsícem a že aktivum zaznamenává lepší výnosy ve čtvrtém čtvrtletí roku. K překvapení všech však 21. září Bitcoin vykázal svůj historicky nejvyšší výnos za měsíc tohoto cyklu.
Hodnota bitcoinu tento měsíc vzrostla přibližně o 9 %, čímž přeskočila své druhé nejlepší září v roce 2016, kdy cena vzrostla o 6 %. Navíc devět z posledních jedenácti října vykázalo pozitivní výnosy pro bitcoiny. Během měsíců býčího trhu v říjnu 2017 a říjnu 2021 zaznamenal BTC větší zisky o 48 % a 40 %.
BTC musí překonat své historické maximum 73 738 dolarů, aby vstoupilo do nového rozpětí objevování cen, a nejhodnotnější kryptoměna světa je od dosažení této úrovně vzdálena pouhých 14 %. Bitcoin se však obchoduje stranou od doby, kdy dosáhl svého vrcholu před šesti měsíci.
Pokud se historie bude opakovat, bitcoin by mohl zažít průlom koncem roku 2024, ale k nejsilnější rally by mohlo dojít až na začátku roku 2025. Bude to podobné parabolickému růstu v roce 2021, který vyvrcholí 427% nárůstem cen na začátku tohoto roku.
Snížení sazeb Federálního rezervního systému je pro bitcoiny býčí
Kromě technické analýzy posilují růstový případ bitcoinu také makroekonomické faktory. Minulý týden Federální rezervní systém snížil svou základní úrokovou sazbu na americký dolar o 50 bazických bodů, čímž ji srazil na 4,75 % – 5 %, což je první snížení sazeb za více než čtyři roky.
Snížení sazeb také signalizovalo začátek nového cyklu likvidity, protože nízké úrokové sazby obecně zvyšují tok peněz do rizikových aktiv, jako jsou bitcoiny a akcie. Představitelé Fedu také naznačili další snížení sazeb do konce roku, čímž dodali trhu více likvidity.
Zatímco centrální banka posouvá svou strategii od kontroly inflace k ekonomickému růstu, makroekonomické pozadí bitcoinu je stále příznivější. Jak se likvidita zvyšuje, institucionální zájem o BTC by mohl stoupat a nedostatek kryptoaktiv po snížení na polovinu by mohl vytlačit ceny ještě výše.
Kombinací fraktálního vzoru zvýrazněného Rekt Capital s makroekonomickými faktory by se dalo předpokládat, že je připravena půda pro velkou bitcoinovou rally v roce 2025. Pokud současná fáze opětovné akumulace proběhne podle očekávání, BTC může překonat svá historická maxima. začátkem příštího roku.
BTC Breakout je v rukou tržních býků
Po posledním býčím běhu, který vyhnal BTC nad 63 000 $ za token, medvědi zdánlivě převzali kontrolu nad cenovou akcí kryptoměny. 23. září se ceny bitcoinů krátce posunuly nad 64 700 USD, poté klesly o 3,3 % a dosáhly denního minima 62 580 USD. Zatímco se token podařilo nepatrně obnovit, býci nebyli schopni udržet jeho cenu nad 64 000 $. To svědčí o silné medvědí přítomnosti poblíž cenové hladiny.
Aby bitcoin pokračoval v rally, jeho cena by se musela posunout nad současnou úroveň rezistence poblíž 66 300 USD, což pomůže BTC rally k další rezistenci poblíž 70 800 USD. Na druhou stranu, pokud rally nenabere na síle, pak cena bitcoinu klesne na 20denní exponenciální klouzavý průměr (EMA) a 50denní soutok podpory EMA blízko 60 400 USD. Porušení této okamžité úrovně podpory by mohlo přinutit BTC otestovat další úroveň podpory blízko 57 000 $.
V době psaní tohoto článku se bitcoin (BTC) obchoduje za 63 394 USD – za posledních 24 hodin pokles o 0,40 %.
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